Oakland @ Baltimore
Oakland +165 over Baltimore

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Posted at 12:15 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Oakland +165 over Baltimore

1:35 PM EST. The 1969 New York Mets were called the "Miracle Mets" because they were projected to lose close to 100 games that year. Ironically, they beat the Baltimore Orioles in the World Series. The O’s were a 4-1 favorite. Ironic because if you read any preseason projections by any publication, the Orioles were supposed to lose 100 games or more this year. They are 2022’s version of the Miracle Mets.

Today the Orioles are without question the biggest overlay on the board. Not only do the A’s have a massive under the radar starter going but Baltimore has the Blue Jays coming in tomorrow for what has to be the Orioles biggest series in a decade. We’ll get to Baltimore’s starter in a moment.

Part of the Sean Manaea trade back in April, Adrian Martinez (RHP - OAK) will make just his third start since July 11 after spending most of the season in Triple-A Las Vegas, one of the worst pitching environments in professional baseball. He pitched credibly well despite the poor surface numbers (5.27 ERA/1.42 WHIP) by striking out 100 batters in 89 frames. For Las Vegas pitching, his stats are actually very, very good but on the surface, it does not appear that way.

Martinez is a durable starter who has a good mid-90s fastball, and a plus change that is terrific, especially against LHB. Since being recalled, Martinez has an elite 15.9% swing and miss rate. He has 11 K’s over his past 10 innings with just two walks issued. He throws 95 MPH with ease and he looks very poised out there. Put him high on your radar and grab some absurd prices like this one when they’re offered.

We’ll now get to Spenser Watkins (RHP - BAL), who has been one of MLB’s luckiest pitchers. Although Watkins' hit-rate and strand seem reasonable, his xERA of 4.78 makes us pause. That xERA is 5.47 in his last five games. Watkins attempts to attack hitters with a 65% first-pitch strike rate with a below-average 8.8% swing and miss rate. Dude has 56 K’s in 89 innings with a 41% groundball rate. In other words, he strikes out very few batters and his groundball rate is not even league average.

This is a starting pitcher that was set to retire and start work as a high-school baseball coach but needing starters in a desperate way, Baltimore called him up to see if he would fill-in until they got some bodies back. Spenser’s choice was to pitch in the majors again for 700K or work as a high school coach for 60K a year. In his first start of the year, Watkins was a +152 home dog to Milwaukee with Eric Lauer going. Milwaukee won 5-4. In Watkins's second start of the year he was in OAKLAND, and was a +169 underdog. Today, Watkins is -185. Incidentally, Oakland won that day, 5-1. He’s been a massive underdog of +160 or more in 9 of his 19 starts. He’s been a +200 underdog or more in five starts. Watkins has been favored twice this year and lost both times. This is a far below-average starter that is priced today (in a bad spot no less) like he’s Jim Palmer and it’s fu**ing absurd.

Our Pick

Oakland +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)