Today's Free Picks for
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-1½ +105-1½ +100 -1½ +100 SIA -1½ +103
Posted at 1:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.
Boston -1½ +105 over Texas
7:10 PM EST. Nick Pivetta's overall profile doesn't indicate a potential breakout anytime soon, which is fine. His overall swing and miss rate, xERA, and lowered home run rates provide a decent foundation with strikeout upside. Most of his underlying metrics don't scream outlier levels due to regress, meaning it's a sustainable profile for Pivetta but this wager is more about fading the Rangers starter. When he can take back any tag against Round Rock Keuchel (LHP - TEX), we’re going to move in.
Dallas Keuchel has been pitching at Round Rock since early July after posting some pathetic looking numbers to get him sent down. The only reason he’s back up is because Texas needs bodies and someone to eat up some innings. As for his profile, well, his swing and miss rate has dipped back into single-digits, leading to career-worst K% and K-BB%, and worsening steady decline of xERA, xWHIP, and xERA. In 13 starts, Round Rock Keuchel has a WHIP of 2.05. In other words, he’s pitching with two men or more on base every inning. In his first start back after being recalled, he struck out one batter in five frames. Round Rock can luck his way into success from time to time, but truth be told, he’s batting practice out there and is only hanging around because the Rangers are paying him. You’ll never see him again on an MLB mound after this month so we’ll fade him when we can.
Boston -1½ +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)