Kansas City @ Chicago
Kansas City +170 over Chicago

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Posted at 12:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Kansas City +170 over Chicago

2:10 PM EST. Daniel Mengden (RHP - KC) makes his season starting debut after throwing just four innings of relief but he did start 17 games for KC’s affiliate club in Omaha covering 91 innings this year. He’s 29-years old with 307 career MLB innings under his belt so he’s no stranger to starting or to facing MLB hitters. We have no idea how he’ll fare nor how long he’ll last but it matters not, as this has nothing to do with getting behind Mengden.

As a +260 underdog yesterday, Colorado outhit Atlanta 6-5 and lost 3-2. As a +190 underdog yesterday, the Cubbies outhit Toronto 10-7 and won 7-5. As a significant dog to Seattle yesterday, Detroit outhit Seattle and lost 5-3. Yesterday was not unique. Every day there are some seriously preposterous prices on very average or even below average starters and this one is another prime example of it.

Johnny Cueto (RHP - CHW) is a -225 favorite here when he’s not good enough to be a -120 favorite. Cueto has 77 K’s in 127 innings to go along with his meager 7.7% swing and miss rate. He’s not following anyone but a very fortunate 2.98 ERA has him grossly overpriced. His xERA is 5.12. He can barely reach 88 MPH on the gun and he’s running out of gas. His best asset is his ability to throw strikes but Kansas City, despite its poor record, is very capable of putting the barrel of the bat on the ball. Cueto has 17 K’s in his last 37 innings. The driving force of his misleading ERA is an 80% strand rate. Today, Cueto is favored like it’s 2015 and he’s Chris Sale and it’s absurd.

Our Pick

Kansas City +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)