Chicago @ Toronto
Chicago +190 over Toronto

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Posted at 12:45 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Chicago +190 over Toronto

7:07 PM EST. The Cubbies are down 0-2 in this series but they could easily be up 2-0 after Toronto had back-to-back late rallies. Still, one has to admire the fight in Chicago, as they play the enjoyable role of the spoiler. Furthermore, after being swept by the Angels and then nearly losing both games to Chicago, Toronto is playing with fire.

The Cubs have not named a starter at the time of this writing but like the books, we don’t care either. It appears as though Luke Farrell (RHP - CHC) is back for another start after being called up from Triple-A Aug. 24, then making one start (Aug. 24) and one relief appearance (Aug. 28). Farrell draws a Toronto club that has scuffled the last few weeks (.672 OPS since Aug. 6, .593 OPS last 10 home games).

Former Blue Jay Dave Stieb is the only live-ball era pitcher to throw three one-hitters in a year, Dave Stieb's one-hitter against Milwaukee made him the only one EVER to throw five over two seasons. He threw 5 one-hitters over a span of 48 starts. Currently, Aaron Nola is the only pitcher in MLB with a shutout in each of the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, Dave Stieb threw shutouts in 12 straight seasons from 1979 to 1990 and tossed fucking THIRTY of them during that span. He was the best pitcher in baseball for a decade. Today, Mitchell White (RHP - TOR) is priced like he;’s Dave Stieb.

White was once a higher-rated prospect, but his stock has faded over the years, though he's managed to pitch admirably well under less-than-ideal conditions. It's pretty remarkable that he fared as well as he did in 2021, when he was recalled from Triple-A by the Dodgers 10 different times over the course of the season, working as both a starter and reliever. Despite the challenging usage, his xERA has hovered around 4.00 over the last two seasons but that mostly pitching at a lot of pitcher parks like San Diego, San Francisco and L.A’s Dodger Stadium.

This year, declining strikeouts have become an issue, as both his K% and swing and miss rate are down in 2022, with both dropping to below-average levels. And over his last five starts, he's fallen to a 14% K% on a 6.8% swing and miss rate, which has helped push his xERA to 5.01 over that period. He only has one plus strikeout pitch, his slider, which he's throwing 24.1% of the time in 2022. And while he has owned average-to-slightly above-average control skills during his time in the majors, there's some question about the sustainability of it, as his sub-indicators haven't been as strong. His 2021 numbers were closer to league average (34% Ball%, 59% first-pitch strike rate), but his 2022 skills have declined to a 37% Ball% and 57% first-pitch strike rate, both of which are below average. With his strikeouts declining and his xERA rising of late, he's not a good candidate to generate much value over the remainder of 2022. He’s not on the Dodgers anymore and is a great fade target when he’s a ludicrous favorite of more than 2-1.

Our Pick

Chicago +190 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.80)