Boston @ Minnesota
Boston +105 over Minnesota

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST and odds are subject to change.

Boston +105 over Minnesota

7:40 PM EST. Best value on the board today, as Dylan Bundy (RHP - MIN) is favored when he is proving to be barely rosterable. Bundy has validated that at his best, he’s a back-end rotation filler and even that is a stretch. First, his. K-BB%, K%, and swing and miss rate are all below MLB average. His velocity is at a career low and his ERA is well over the MLB average of 3.98 and his xERA (4.91) does not forecast better days ahead. The best news is that Dyland Bundy has a 2.94 ERA over his last five starts covering 24 innings so public perception is that he’s in good form. Nothing could be further from the truth, as he’s been about the most hittable pitcher in baseball for over a month. In said 24 innings, he has struck out 12 batters with a off-the-charts line drive rate of 29%. His swing and miss rate last game was 1.5% and his xERA over his last five starts is 6.31, which is almost four runs higher than his surface ERA. Bundy has been on the extreme side of good luck and now it’s just about all those hard hit balls being hit where they ain’t.

The misleading stats and public perception does not stop with Bundy. No, they’ll continue here with Brayan Bello (RHP - BOS), who looks like he has not been ready for big league action if you just scan the surface (0-3, 7.36 ERA, 2.09 WHIP). Underneath those ugly numbers are some very interesting indicators, which include his 3.73 xERA and 68% groundball rate. He is very effective at keeping the ball on the ground which has also resulted in him not yet allowing a HR in 22 IP. Bello has been on the extreme side of poor fortune and if all things are indeed equal, Bundy will get absolutely torched while Bello will throw a strong game. Man, the surface stats of both starters are very misleading and now we get a great opportunity to capitalize.



Our Pick

Boston +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)