Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia
Pittsburgh +225 over Philadelphia

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Posted at 11:15 AM EST and odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +225 over Philadelphia

1:05 PM EST. The Phillies are red-hot while the Pirates are ice-cold. The Phillies have won six in a row and seven of eight because they have played Pittsburgh and Cinci over that span. Look, we hate playing the Pirates as much as the next guy but to us, these prices are insane and must be played. In any case, we guarantee you that Pittsburgh is going to win at least one more game (probably several) this year. Whether this is one of those games remains to be seen but we also guarantee you that the price here to get behind Noah Syndergaard (RHP - PHI) and the Phillies is preposterous.

Noah Syndergaard remains a big risk when facing left-handed hitters. He doesn't have a strikeout pitch against them: 14% K%, 7% BB%, 7% K-BB%, 44% grounders and an xERA of 4.96. He finds one against righty bats, but his margin for error remains slim: 20% K%, 5% BB%, 15% K-BB%, 42% grounders with a 4.35 ERA.

Pittsburgh will send out its best starter today. We played Roansy Contreras (RHP - PIT) as a +170 underdog last game against Atlanta. Pittsburgh outhit Atlanta that day 5-4 but lost 2-1 with Contreras going seven full and allowing two runs on four hits with five K’s. Contreras has a devastating slider, which is generating a 23.8% swing and miss rate on 29.7% usage. Both his 36% Ball% and 58% first-pitch strike rate are right around league average. He certainly has the talent to catch a team napping if they’re not totally focused. Philadelphia will play its 10th straight at home here before heading out tomorrow for a six-game trip to play in Arizona and San Francisco respectively. Not a bad spot to catch Philadelphia but regardless of that, Syndergaard and the Phillies a 3-1 fav is f**ked up.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh +225 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.50)