Today's Free Picks for
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Pinnacle has the best price here with Colorado +206.
Colorado +206 over St. Louis
1:15 PM EST. How the f**k is Colorado going to pull this one out? Almost impossible, right? Adam Wainwright (RHP - St. L) wins games while Anotonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) wins stuffed animals at the local carnival in the ball-tossing games. Wainwright has a 3.27 ERA after 23 starts while Senzatela has a 4.67 ERA after 18 starts. However, Wainwright pitches half his games in pitcher-friendly St. Louis while Senzatela pitches half his at the most hitter-friendly venue in the history of MLB. Furthermore, Wainwright has a 4.67 xERA. His swing and miss rate last game was 3%. His fastball velocity and his swing and miss rate is trending downward. His sinker (29.2% usage) does not miss many bats, as he has a 2.6% swing and miss rate with the pitch. At age 40, the veteran Wainwright continues to deliver helpful results for his team’s quest, but his below-average skills aren't buying his 2022 ERA. He is always at the mercy of Batting Average on Balls in Play and his defense, so why wouldn’t he be priced like he’s Bob Gibson?
Colorado activated Antonio Senzatela from the injured list on July 22 when he started against the Brewers. Prior to the injury he had regressed from what was a palatable profile for a Colorado starting pitcher the last couple of years. More walks, less groundballs, less swinging strikes and some worse hit/strand rate luck had him with a 4.95 ERA (4.86 xERA) and a 1.80 WHIP over innings. In 31 innings since returning, he’s been a whole lot better but one wouldn’t see it unless one delved deep under the hood. It’s also worth noting that Senzatela has eight pure quality starts in 18 attempts. That’s an impressive number.
Pure Quality Starts is the next step in following pitching lines. The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.
In Pure Quality Starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "Pure Quality Start Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone more than 6 innings. This measures stamina.
2. He must have allowed fewer hits than the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. He must have struck out at least five batters. This measures dominance.
4. He must have a 3.0 K/BB ratio, or at least 3 Ks if he had zero walks. This measures command.
5. He must not allow any home runs. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect Pure Quality Start score would be 5 (5 categories) Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about Pure Quality Start is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event. Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
In any case, Senzatela’s groundball rate since his return is 60% and his xERA is 3.47. This starter for the Rockies is pitching better right now than a lot of pitchers in MLB. He pitches mostly to contact but he’s becoming more difficult to hit with each passing start and is absolutely worth a bet here against the Cardinals with Wainwright starting.
One last thing….yesterday we suggested that Cal Quantrill was an absurd price (-220) against Detroit. Well, Detroit had a 4-2 lead going to the eighth inning where Cleveland would score six times. On paper, we lost that game, however, if one has access to LIVE Betting, one should never lose money in a game like that. Cleveland was +475 LIVE going to the 8th inning. A small wager to buy out of your liability and barely hurt your bottom line is always a prudent move and is also the reason we do not play games in the first five innings. After five innings, Detroit had a 3-1 lead and after six innings, Detroit had a 4-1 lead. After six, one could have bought back some Cleveland at +340. Anyway, the point is that you have options should your team be leading after five innings or anytime at all. When you’re taking back big prices and your team is leading, you should not lose anything if you have access to LIVE BETTING. One could have even guaranteed themselves a significant profit buying more than your liability.
Colorado +206 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.12)