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+180  +180   +180

Posted at 10:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Detroit +180 over Cleveland

7:10 PM EST. Well, so much for theory that Daniel Norris (LHP - DET) just needed to become a full-time reliever. His 68% strand rate made things look worse, but regardless, these surface numbers are not going to cut it in a modern pen. We’ll now see if he is able to carve out a career on the fringes. 

Daniel Norris has overpaid his dues. He’s been a starter, reliever, mop-up man, closer and everything else you can think of. No question that his preference is starting. No question he has talent (44 K’s in 35 innings with a 53% groundball rate). However, he has a 5.97 ERA and it’s mostly due to the 23 walks issued in 35 frames. Dude can pitch and it’s also worth noting that the Tribe own MLB’s worst OPS v left-handed starters so there is that. Perhaps starting again will tap into his once-promising talent that is still there but even if he lasts 2 innings and gives up eight runs, we care not, as Cleveland and its starter are so overpriced here that we must move in. 

Maybe we’re crazy. Maybe all these garbage starters are worthy of being priced like they’re Cy Young contenders but we cannot buy into it. Cal Quantrill (RHP - CLE) is another below average pitcher that is priced like he’s Max Scherzer for f**k sakes and that means we have to step in. Quantrill has 86 K’s in 130 innings with a 4.86 ERA. Pitchers like Quantrill, who relies on luck and batted ball variance should be taking back +180 on most days and not spotting -220. Turns out that Quantrill’s hit and strand rates are the true drivers in his 3.67 ERA. Most of the market buys ERA instead of xERA, which provides us with opportunities like this. His slide in skills are explained by a corresponding drop in whiffs (8.3% swing and miss rate) along with an alignment of walks with xBB%. Even his groundball rate is weak (39%). He’s grossly overvalued because of his success (on paper) which xERA confirms really isn't much of a surge at all. He’s priced like a 2.45 ERA pitcher when in fact, he’s closer to a 5.00 ERA pitcher underneath the surface. This time out, or any time out, Quantrill’s ass could end up horseshoe-less.