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+150  +145   +150

Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

The best price available to us is at Pinnacle with the Halos +156.

L.A. Angels +156 over Seattle

9:38 PM EST. In the spirit of sticking with it, we’ll come right back on the Halos tonight after last night’s loss that saw these two teams tied at 2-2 going to the 9th inning. The M’s would score 4 times in the ninth and now they’re a ridiculous -150 road favorite with Robby Ray (RHP - SEA) starting.

Robbie Ray is good but there is always a price to pay on a Cy Young winner the year after his best season. Last season, he threw half of his pitches in the zone, which fueled the improved control that turned him elite, but he threw to the same rate of pitches in the zone in 2016, which didn't stick. Also, a friendly hit and strand rate hasn't repeated. He had a very similar season in 2017, which turned out to be a mirage. Now, we’re not saying it’s all a mirage but he’s not worthy of being a -170 road favorite against an Angels’ squad that is at least bringing it in their role of being the spoiler.

With Noah Syndergaard traded to the Phillies, José Suarez (LHP - LAA) looks to lock down a backend rotation role. Suarez has provided a few value-worthy starts with an overall 4.04 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 62.1 innings. Should we stay away from Suarez, or can he provide value?

Suarez's hit rate and strand rate look similar to the career norms. The changeup remains his best pitch in swinging strikes at 18.9%. Monitor the slider since Suarez has thrown it for a career-high 15.6%, paired with a quality 13.7% swing and miss rate. For context, Suarez previously used the slider 3.4% of the time back in 2019 if we toss out the uber small 2020 sample of five sliders. Unsurprisingly, the batted ball results follow suit with a .292 wOBA on the changeup and a .219 wOBA against the slider in 2022. He has also increased the usage of the slider since June. Suarez threw the slider 13.6% of the time in June, up to 22.9% in July, and 26.1% in August. Suarez doesn't possess any pitch with an above-average movement profile since the four-seamer barely qualifies (0.2 inches versus the average). However, in 2022, Suarez reshaped his changeup with four more inches of drop and over four inches of horizontal movement versus 2021. Overall, the offspeed offering remains effective. While we're not heavily advocating for betting on Suarez, it’s worth noting that his best starts came against the Mariners, Royals, and Athletics. It's an inconsistent profile but it’s quietly getting a lot better.