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-1½ +135  -1½ +125   -1½ +125

Posted at 2:45 PM EST and are subject to change.

St. Louis -1½ +135 over Milwaukee

8:15 PM EST. Jordan Montgomery (LHP - STL) was a shrewd trade-deadline acquisition. While his stats with NYY weren't good on the surface during July (4.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 29 IP), his skills were very strong: 26% K%, 7% BB%, 19% K-BB%, 47% grounders and a 2.99 xERA. Even more reasons for optimism can be found in his command building blocks, which were the best in the game in aggregate: 14.5% swing and miss rate, 74% first-pitch strike rate, 32% Ball%. He’ll face a Brewers’ team that ranks 25th in the majors against LHP.

Eric Lauer (LHP - MIL) posted a 2.70 ERA over his last four starts covering 23 innings. Overall, dude has a very respectable 3.59 ERA, which all looks pretty on paper but pretty it is not when one looks under the hood. That’s actually an understatement, as he’s been the luckiest starter in the league for weeks. See that 2.70 ERA over his last four starts? Well, over that 23 inning stretch, he walked 12 batters, struck out 15 with a swing and miss rate of 6.6%. That led to an xERA of 6.84, which is four runs higher than his actual ERA over that span. An 82% strand rate is the driving force of his misleading ERA along with an extremely lucky .260 BABIP. And for what it’s worth, he's much less effective on the road though, where he has a 4.47 ERA. Lastly, Lauer’s batted ball profile looks just as ugly as his under the hood numbers with a soft hit%/medium hit%/hard hit% of 18.5%/48.8%/32.7%. Finally, the Cardinals crush lefties to the tune of a .791 OPS, which is second in the entire league behind the Yanks. This starter for the Crew is as weak as any starter in the biz.