St. Louis @ Colorado
Colorado -1½ +173 over St. Louis

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Posted at 11:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with the Rockies -1½ +173. You can also play them at -1½ +162 at 888Sport.

Colorado -1½ +173 over St. Louis

3:10 PM EST. If anyone can thrive at Coors Field, it's German Marquez (RHP - COL), given his groundball tilt and experience at this park. He has posted steady value through July but he’s also been yo-yoing above/below a 4.50 xERA, which may be his fate but we’ll live with whatever he delivers here. Marquez has won a lot of games at Coors over the years and there’s no question that he can win this one too. That said, this is a big-time fade Dakota Hudson (RHP - ST.L).

In 105 frames, Dakota Hudson has walked 46 batters and struck out 56. In terms of ratios, does it get worse than that? His swing and miss rate of 5.5% is the worst in the league among starters with more than 100 innings pitched and Coors will not excuse him. That might work in St. Louis’ pitcher friendly environment but it’s not likely to work here. Hudson has never been a guy with a ton of swing-and-miss in his game, but only two qualified starting pitchers in the entire league have a lower swing & miss rate in 2022. The cutter has been his only offering that has garnered a swing & miss rate better than 8% and even that is weak. Walks are a problem and a 43% Ball% suggests relief isn’t on the way. The massive ERA/xERA disparity illustrates how fortunate he has been in terms of hit%/strand%. His currently subpar 1.39 WHIP figures to worsen too. The regression will be significant.



Our Pick

Colorado -1½ +173 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.46)

Detroit +103 over Tampa Bay
Seattle +107 over Texas