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+135 +130   +130

Posted at 11:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with the Pirates +138. You can also play them at +135 at Bet365.

Pittsburgh +138 over Arizona

9:40 PM EST. Madison Bumgarner (LHP - ARI) cannot be favored in this range ever again. He has posted a 3.96 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP after 116 innings but sell-high targets don't get much better. First off, a 1.39 WHIP does not support a 3.96 ERA. When one has a 1.39 WHIP, one’s ERA is closer to five than it is to four. MadBum’s skills have been some of the worst among sub-4.00 ERA starters: 16% K%, 8% BB%, 8% K-BB% and 31% grounders since the all-star break. His command sub-indicators haven't been any better. Dude has 14 K’s over his last 25 frames with eight walks issued to go along with a 6.23 xERA. He must be faded.

Is it…is it finally happening? Is Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) finally happening?? The once lauded prospect has struggled profusely through his first four seasons in the majors, but he’s been terrific over his last five starts: 1.74 ERA, 31 innings, 22 strikeouts, and just two home runs allowed. Don’t blame Keller for the lack of wins; the Pirates have scored a combined 11 runs in those starts, with five coming in his lone victory over the Marlins on July 11. Those five starts were against the Marlins (twice), Rockies (at Coors), Phillies, and Orioles.

There’s a lot to like about Keller’s change in results this year. His groundball rate has risen significantly while he’s allowing fewer fly-balls. Additionally, Keller has changed his pitch arsenal dramatically since last year. He’s cut his four-seam usage from 57% to 33% while adding a sinker and throwing more changeups. However, Keller might be starting to use the curveball more. His 26.4% usage on the pitch in his last start Friday against the Orioles was a career high; opponents went 2-for-9 against the pitch while pounding the hook into the dirt. Keller’s curve gives him more ammo in his arsenal and now he’s priced like he’s the second best pitcher in this matchup when in fact, he’s the vastly superior starter. We’ll therefore bite.