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+155 +150   +150

Posted at 11:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with the Pirates +157. You can also play them at +155 at Bet365.

Pittsburgh +157 over Baltimore

1:35 PM EST. Bryse Wilson (RHP - PIT) throws both a 2-seam and 4-seam fastball with good results, but all of his offspeed pitches (slider, curve, and change-up) lack putaway qualities. As a result, he’s struggled at this level with a 6.20 ERA through 61 innings covering 11 starts and three relief appearances. Pretty on paper it is not, however, Wilson has three pure quality starts in 11 tries, which means he has gone at least five frames (or more) and had as many strikeouts as hits allowed. Last year at about this same time, Wilson took the mound against Arizona after Jonathan Brubaker ended up on the DL and went out and tossed five scoreless innings. Still young at the age of 24, he’s shown flashes but there's still a lot of work to do before we’d categorize him as an undervalued pitcher but this isn’t about getting behind Wilson. No, it’s about fading a pitcher that is usually +170 or more and now, for the first time ever, he’s priced in the elite range when he’s nowhere near elite.

In 14 starts, Spenser Watkins (RHP - BAL) has three quality starts, which is the same number of quality starts that Bryse Wilson has in 11 tries. Watkins has walked 20 and struck out 40 in 64 innings, which is also worse than Wilson in terms of BB/K ratio and swing & miss rate.

Watkins is very warm and of course, so are the Orioles, thus the inflated tag. Over the past month, Spenser Watkins posted a 14.2% K-BB% with a 1.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP versus his season-long 4.03 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 5.9% K-BB%. The last month, however, is a mirage, as evidenced by his 5.01 xERA. His surface numbers are the direct result of an 88% strand rate and 25% hit rate. Watkins was set to retire and start work as a high-school baseball coach but the O’s were desperate for bodies so they signed him in the off-season of 2021, culminating in his unexpected call-up. While one could choose to ride Watkin’s hot streak, there is no question that it’s ffluky due to below-average skills and recent luck via the hit%, strand%, and 0% home run rates. As for an overlay, well, let us break that down too.

Spenser Watkins starts this year:

He was +151 against Milwaukee (Lauer) in his 1st start

He was +169 against Oakland Montas in his 2nd start

He was +231 against LAA (Syndergaard) in his 3rd start

He was +169 against Boston (Eovaldi) in his 4th start

He was +153 against Minnesota (Archer) in his 5th start

He was +198 against St. Louis (Mikolas) in his 6th start

He was +211 against NYY (Taillon) in his 7th start

He was +159 against Tampa (Kluber) in his 8th start

He was +182 against Chicago White Sox in his 9th start

He was +208 against Minnesota (Ryan) in his 10th start

He was +103 against Texas (Otto) in his 11th start

He was +135 against Chicago Cubs (Steele) in his 11th start

He was +165 against Tampa (McClanahan) in his 12th start

He was +159 against Texas (J. Gray) in his last start.

Dude has been an underdog in every game this year and a big underdog in most of them. Today, he’s priced like an elite pitcher and it’s absurd. Big, big overlay.