Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit +170 over Minnesota

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Posted at 2:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Detroit +170 over Minnesota

7:40 PM EST. Matt Manning (RHP - MIN) made two starts in April before landing on the injured list due to inflammation and tendinitis in his right shoulder. In one start v Boston back in April, he went six frames and allowed one hit. In his next start v KC, he went two innings and allowed five hits and right afterward he landed on the DL. Amid a wave of young pitching on the Tigers, Manning wiped out hardest. While strikeout rates had been fine in his rise through the minors, he missed few bats in his first MLB tour. High average exit velocity confirms he's been no mystery, and xHR/F says it could've been even worse. We were thinking it might be best to let him try to sort things out away from our bankroll but his rehab starts were good, he throws strikes, he undoubtedly has talent and he has an elite groundball rate. The kicker, however, is that Chris Archer (RHP - MIN) is among the worst starters in baseball and cannot be favored in this range.

Chris Archer has one quality start this year in 17 tries. Despite a respectable looking 4.04 ERA, his skills are abysmal (5.52 xERA, 6.9 K’s/9, 4.5 BB/9) and he’s getting worse. Dude walked six batters in his last start. The Twinkies are so concerned that they scratched him yesterday to give him an extra day's rest. His first pitch strike rate over his past six games is 44% so he’s almost always pitching from behind in the count. Used to be you had to be an elite pitcher to be priced in this range, but now, these favorite prices on guys like Archer are absolutely absurd. If we rip this ticket up, so be it.

Our Pick

Detroit +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees