Milwaukee @ Boston
Milwaukee -1 +120 over Boston

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Posted at 9:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Milwaukee -1½ +120 over Boston

1:35 PM EST. There are 30 teams in MLB. After a seven-game winning streak that ended on June 26 and to the present, a stretch of 29 games, Boston ranks near the bottom in just about every category, including offense, defense, victories and overall pitching (no Boston starter has a victory in the month of July). Today, that trend of futility doesn’t figure to end, especially on the mound, where Josh Winckowski (RHP - BOS) will make his 9th start of the year and has to be feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders with a battered bullpen behind him.

Winckowski’s swing and miss rate last game was 1.4%. Red Sox back-up third baseman Yolmer Sanchez had a better swing and miss rate in the final inning in Boston’s 28-5 loss to Toronto. In 40 innings, he has 27 K’s but perhaps most importantly is that he's a young 24-year-old that is struggling mightily in his first taste of the big leagues. That can play on one’s mind, as one’s confidence level gets heavily damaged. Winckowski is not in a good position here.

Speaking of 24-year-old rookies, Milwaukee will send one out also today in Aaron Ashby (LHP - MIL). Big difference however, as Ashby has 92 K’s in 76 frames with an elite 14.4% swing & miss rate. The good news for us value bettors is that Ashby hasn’t delivered on the surface with (4.38 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). However, Ashby's combination of whiffs and groundballs (55%) makes him a really unique pitcher with a high ceiling. He also does a good job of preventing hard and barreled contact (88.3 mph EV, 6.3% Brl%). The Red Sox misery continues.

Our Pick

Milwaukee -1 +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees