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-1½ +170 -1½ +165  -1½ +170

Posted at 12:15 PM EST and are subject to change.

Boston -1½ +170 over Milwaukee

4:10 PM EST. Boston’s stock is very low right now. The Red Sox sit dead last in the AL East, they are 2-6 on their current homestand and they dropped another one last night, 4-1. Nick Pivetta's (RHP - BOS) overall skills doesn't indicate a breakout second but his overall swing & miss rate, xERA, and lowered home run rates provide optimism as a starter with strikeout upside. Most of his underlying metrics don't scream outlier levels due to regress, meaning it's a sustainable profile for Pivetta and his first half was very decent. That said, this is more about fading Milwaukee’s starter and also buying low on Boston.

One could play Boston at a pick-em but we’ll take back 70 cents and lay the extra run. We’re suggesting it would be better to avoid Eric Lauer (LHP - MIL) today. Against LHP, Red Sox hitters rank inside the Top-10 in MLB in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Lauer struggles with the longball (1.79 HR/9) and he pitches a lot worse on the road: 4.73 ERA versus 2.85 ERA at home. Boston hitters are undoubtedly struggling as of late – fifth-worst BABIP over the last 14 days – but their .177 ISO in the same span is still in the Top-10 in MLB, hinting that they’re on the verge of positive regression. Whether you play Boston straight up or on the run-line, the value is great.