Arizona @ Atlanta
Atlanta -1 -105 over Arizona

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Atlanta -1½ -105 over Arizona

7:20 PM EST. Prior to 2022, Kyle Wright (RHP - ATL) had amassed a 6.56 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 70 MLB innings spread over four seasons. The Braves allowed him to spend virtually the entire 2021 season at Triple-A Gwinnett where he posted a 3.02 ERA in 137 IP, and he has carried that momentum into 2022 with a sparkling 2.95 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 116 IP. It’s all legit, as he owns an impressive collection of skills. Four of Wright’s five offerings have garnered a swing & miss rate of at least 12%. The curve has been his best pitch (17% swing & miss 51% grounders) and he has dramatically increased usage of the pitch compared to previous MLB stints, throwing it 34% of the time in 2022.

A renewed focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone has led to a vastly improved BB%. His xBB% indicates there’s a little more potential upside. Keeping the ball on the ground has been a big plus as well, as it has helped him avoid HR issues and work out of jams. His groundball rate is an elite 54%. His four-seam fastball had been getting crushed in recent years, but he has located it much better in 2022, peppering the top of the zone to great effect. His velocity is also up a couple ticks. It’s important to remember that Wright had just 155 IP at the professional level, including only 29 IP at Triple-A, ahead of his September 2018 MLB debut. Factor in the lack of a minor league season in 2020 and he had a mere 331 professional innings under his belt prior to 2021, so the Braves opted to let him spend nearly the entire 2021 regular season at Triple-A Gwinnett. That allowed him to work on various aspects of his game in a more relaxed environment. He refined his mechanics, started throwing his best pitch more often (curve), upgraded his change-up and sinker, and was able to regain his confidence (with help from the team’s mental performance coach Zach Sorenson). All that work has paid off, as Wright is delivering on the immense potential that made him the fifth overall pick in the 2017 draft.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP - ARI) has posted a 3.71 ERA after 104 frames covering 20 starts but sell-high targets don't get much better. His skills have been some of the worst among sub-4.00 ERA starters: 16% K%, 8% BB%, 8% K-BB%, 39% grounders and a weak xERA of 4.88 His command sub-indicators haven't been any better: 7.6% swing & miss, 58% first-pitch strikes, 35% ball%. MadBum’s good fortune has been off the charts this year, meaning all hard hit balls are being hit right at folks. Madbum is what we refer to as a mercy starter, meaning he’s always at the mercy of BABIP and his defense.



Our Pick

Atlanta -1 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees