Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.
Colorado -1½ +310 over L.A. Dodgers
8:40 PM EST. Price + Coors Field factor will dictate this play, as anything can happen at this park where the Rockies always win more games than they lose. A massive crowd on hand to see the Dodgers adds even more atmosphere to a charged up one and it’s also worth noting that the Rockies destroy lefthanders at home and will face one here that has exceeded expectations.
Tyler Anderson (LHP - LAD) inked a one-year, $8 million deal in March 2022 that didn’t get much attention, but it has proven to be a shrewd move, as he owns a 2.79 ERA in 103 innings. Anderson’s K-rate has never has never been higher and it’s all because of his changeup and elite control. However, he averages 90 MPH on his fastball. That’s weak. As a flyball pitcher, (38%/43% groundball/fly-ball split) HR’s will continue to be a concern, particularly given his 3rd percentile velocity. He has been aided by HR/F luck in 2022. A fortunate hit-rate/strand rate combo has also been helpful, as evidenced by the ERA/xERA gap (4.25 xERA). In summary, his fly-ball tilt and low velocity make him susceptible to bouts of gopheritis, Also keep in mind that he’s faced a soft schedule to this point and there figures to be some pullback.
Jose Urena (RHP - COL) is not going to get a lot of space because he’s only made four starts this year. Last year he was semi-rosterable with a 3.60 ERA through seven starts, then injuries struck yet again (forearm, groin) and he finished the season as a reliever. Still, his elite groundball rate of 56% means he always has a chance to get out of jams and besides that, he doesn’t figure to go more than four innings. This is really another Coors Field angle play.
Colorado -1½ +310 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 6.20)