Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:15 PM EST and are subject to change.
Cincinnati -1½ +150 over Miami
6:40 PM EST. Perhaps the best value on the board today. The Reds are a small -130 favorite and that’s because they have a rookie pitcher starting that brings an ERA of 5.81 with him for this start. That said, we’ll spot the extra half run and take back a decent price on the run line because that value is great too.
As for Nick Lodolo (LHP, CIN), well, he recently returned from the injured list. While his year-to-date stats have been ugly in a small sample size of 26 innings, his skills have reflected his upper-rotation upside: 29% K%, 8% BB%, 21% K-BB%, 43% grounders, and a 3.21 xERA. Dude has 38 K’s in 26 innings with a supported 14.4% swing & miss rate. His xERA confirms that the window to buy low on him could close quickly so get in now. Lodolo takes on a Marlins team hitting .203 versus LHP this past month with a .098 ISO.
Then there’s Trevor Rogers (LHP - MIA). Rogers has been extremely inconsistent and very hittable so far in 2022. His surface stats suggest you don't want to use him during his home starts given his horrific 8.85 ERA and 1.87 WHIP there. But his home skills have been better than on the road. The place to avoid using him is on the road, where his skills completely collapse: 14% K%, 13% BB%, 1% K-BB%, 38% grounders and a horrific xERA of 6.55. Do yourself a favor and keep your bankroll out of Mr. Rogers’ neighborhood.
Cincinnati -1½ +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)