Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.
Colorado +165 over Milwaukee
2:10 PM EST. Chad Kuhl (RHP - COL) recently changed his pitch mix to a blend reminiscent of the abbreviated 2020 season, scaling back on his four-seam fastball usage while leaning heavily on a sinker/slider combo (40%/38% usage) and throwing the curve, change-up, and four-seamer 11%, 7%, and 4%, respectively. The goal would seem to be to try to induce more groundballs, but it hasn’t come to fruition, as his launch angle allowed has actually gone up from 12% in 2021 to 15% in 2022. Dude has a respectable 4.11 ERA after 17 starts and he also sports a winning record so there’s that. Are we crazy about Kuhl? No, we’re not but this isn’t about getting behind Kuhl. This is about getting behind the Rockies against a southpaw that should not be close to a 2-1 favorite.
Eric Lauer (LHP - MIL) against the Rocks sounds like a good matchup, but his rating is backed by a few factors. In the last month (23 innings), Lauer only has a 12% K-BB rate (20% in 2022) and his K/9 has tanked down to 7.67 in the same span (down from 10.32 K/9 this season). Rockies hitters against LHP strike out less than 16.5% of the time (second-best in MLB) and have a Top-10 walk rate. Interesting to note is that while Lauer has pitched in the zone almost the same amount in the last 30 days as he has this season, his 7.5% swinging strike and 90% zone contact rates in the last 30 days are significantly worse than his 11.1% swinging strike and 83% zone contact rates this year. The Rockies are a top-5 offensive team in many categories against lefties and Lauer is getting progressively worse with each passing start. Today, Eric Lauer is priced like he’s Clayton Kershaw.
Colorado +165 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)