Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:45 PM EST and are subject to change.
Boston +111 over Toronto
7:00 PM EST. Let the dog days of summer begin and right off the bat, we can strongly suggest that the Blue Jays should not be road chalk in Boston. The Jays have won five of their past six but three of those were against a depleted Royals team missing several key players and Toronto was in a position to lose three of those four games. The other two victories were against Philadelphia with one of those being a 4-3 victory so pretty it has not been. Prior to that unimpressive five wins in six games, Toronto had lost nine of 10 and it cost Charlie Montoyo his job.
The Jays stock is rising again but they are overvalued again. We get it, as Toronto has one of the most exciting kinds of lineup—one full of homegrown stars and complementary big-name talents. The long and the short of it is that this is a fun, young team on the rise but being road favs here isn’t justified facing Nathan Eovaldi (RHP - BOS).
Eovaldi isn't someone you'd expect to see among the top 10 starters skills leaders over the past 12 months, but here he is: 28% K%, 4% BB%, 24% K-BB%, 41% grounders and an elite 3.24 xERA. He has pinpoint control supported by his elite 68% first-pitch strike rate and 30% ball%.
Kevin Gausman has been amazing this year with a 2.87 ERA after 17 games started. However, he’s still just 6-7 on the year so he’s by no means a lock to win when he pitches. His command metrics have whipped to stiff peaks; his swing and miss rate is aging like fine wine and he has a delectable splitter. However, regression is looming after an overachieving ERA, WHIP. Don't be a glutton and you won't be disappointed should you bet him as road chalk in Boston against this team and this starter. We must play the value here.
Note: we found +111 at Pinnacle Sports
Boston +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)