Pittsburgh @ Colorado
Pittsburgh -1 +162 over Colorado

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smallbet365 -1½ +155small888 -1½ +162  -1½ +160

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +162 over Colorado

3:10 PM EST. There was significant buzz around Mitch Keller (RHP - PIT) this past spring, as he showcased a revamped delivery and increased velocity. However, with a 4.88 ERA and 1.48 WHIP through 83 innings, it hasn’t translated into results. What’s going on here is a lot of bad luck. Keller’s 2.2 mph velocity uptick has carried over from spring into the 2022 season. A heightened focus on throwing strikes has led to an improved BB%. Hit%/srand% misfortune is mainly to blame for the weak ERA. Keller’s improved velocity and BB% are both positive developments, but there is more work to be done. He needs to get more out of his secondary pitches, which he has been recently. Over his last five starts, Keller has an elite 53% groundball rate to go along with 25 K’s in 28 innings. Yeah, this is Coors where anything can happen but Colorado’s starter is a massive risk spotting a price and he now becomes our target here.

Jose Urena (RHP - COL) is a 30-year-old journeyman with weak skills. After 20 innings this year covering six appearances (two starts), he brings a rosterable 2.66 ERA to the table but it’s all smoke and mirrors. In 20 frames, Urena has walked more batters (11) than he’s struck out (8). That has led to an xERA of 6.88, four runs higher than his actual ERA. He has a swing and miss rate of 7% and ERA’s in the 5’s and 6’s at this level every year since he first appeared at this level back in 2015. These aren't skills you want anywhere near your bankroll.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh -1 +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees