Today's Free Picks for
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Cincinnati +160 over NY Yankees
7:05 PM EST. Nestor Cortes (LHP - NYY) is a 27-year-old somewhat soft-tossing swingman that is delivering a season no one expected. That is following a season last that no-one expected with the final two months of the year being from the rotation. Dude had everything in his favor: hit rate, strand%, HR/F, sudden command vR and a K-BB% for which history gave no warning. This year is much of the same but we have to suggest that regression is coming for a few reasons. First, his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 30%/20%/50% is what minor-league careers are made of. His strand percentage of 82% is unsustainable. Add in some arm fatigue and an xERA of 4.71 over his last five starts and maybe, just maybe, we can cash in on the books putting up an inflated price on Cinci’s great starter.
Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) got off to a rough start in 2021, posting a 7.22 ERA through May, before rebounding with a 2.73 ERA over the rest of the season. He opened 2022 on the IL (shoulder), but returned on May 9 and currently boasts a 2.92 ERA through 71 IP. Castillo is still inducing lots of groundballs and is now up to an elite rate of 54%. Castillo has carried the momentum from a strong second half of 2021 into 2022. Interestingly, he has once again displayed increased velocity as the season has progressed (Velocity May/June/July 2022: 95.9/97.2/97.6 mph). He comes in with 37 K’s in his last 32 frames with an xERA of 2.53 and today he’s priced like he’s Mike Minor. Yeah, we’ll bite.
Cincinnati +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)