Pittsburgh @ Miami
Pittsburgh -1 +220 over Miami

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Posted at 1:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +220 over Miami

6:40 PM EST. Reliever Chris Stratton (RHP - PIT) will make the start, which means this is a bullpen day for the Pirates, which suits us just fine. With him not expected to last long and us having no clue who will follow him, we’re just going to move on and focus on our fade target—Daniel Castano (LHP - MIA).

The Marlins are loaded with quality young arms. Daniel Castano is not one of them. Last time out, Castano was torched for six runs on nine hits while striking out just two in only four innings pitched against the Mets last Thursday. If you think we’re picking on Castano, last week (prior to Castano planned two starts vs COL and NYM), one writer we respect wrote this about him, “Another untalented two-start guy.” Sounds stiff, but the truth hurts. Oh, there’s more, over his last three seasons, Castano has had just one pitch that grades out to an average offering and that is his changeup, which he only throws 19% of the time. Everything else Castano deals on the mound is trash.

Castano has pitched just 30 innings so far this season with five starts under his belt. If the early results are any indication, his less than stellar scouting analysis is spot on. Castano’s xERA is much higher than his surface number. He can’t fool anyone with a strikeout rate of 5.88 and a puny swing & miss rate of 7.3%. Castano is awful, but he’s priced in the same range as Trevor Rogers was yesterday. We’re no fans of Rogers, but even he's better than this stiff. We’re not missing out on this tremendous value.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh -1 +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)

Colorado +206 over St. Louis
Oakland +168 over Texas
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees