Today's Free Picks for
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Detroit -1½ +225 over Chicago
2:10 PM EST. Garrett Hill (RHP - DET) made his major league debut with a spot start on Monday, July 4 against the Guardians in the first game of a doubleheader. It was a nice debut, as he allowed a run on two hits across six innings to earn the win. He walked one and struck out three. He was a 26th round selection in the 2018 draft and has easily exceeded all expectations. Despite his limited size and lack of premium velocity, he has ascended the minor league ladder with consistent results. He has spent his entire career in the starting rotation and has posted impressive numbers at each stop. Hill began 2022 in Double-A Erie before a promotion to Triple-A Toledo in June. Hill struck out 99 hitters in 75 innings while reaching Double-A in 2021, but the Tigers didn’t 40-man him. He sat mostly 91-94 during his Arizona Fall League stint, and his breaking balls, especially his slider, were harder than they were during the regular season. Hill’s splitter is his out-pitch, though. He’s a four-pitch starter that is able to fool hitters with a deceptive release point. The splitter is what sets him apart. It offers excellent darting action and is tough to elevate. Hill is mostly a groundball pitcher who doesn’t allow many hard hit balls. With a career .203 oppBA, he has certainly been tough to hit.
Johnny Cueto (RHP - CHW) has a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with a 19% K% and 6.3% BB% in 60.2 innings but the skills look unimpressive. Cueto's 28% hit rate is normal but his 80% strand rate is not only fortunate but it’s unsustainable too. His swing and miss rate is down to 8.6%. It was 5.3% last game when he walked five batters and struck out three in six innings. Amongst his five pitches thrown over 10% of the time, Cueto only possesses one offering in the changeup with a double-digit swing and miss rate at 11.4%, down six percentage points from his career best mark. Cueto is not the same since his 2017 arm woes segued into 2018 Tommy John surgery but today he’s priced like it’s 2015 and he’s overpriced against one of the hottest teams in the league. There is not a single reason to lay off the Tigers here.
Detroit -1½ +225 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.50)