Today's Free Picks for
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Colorado -1½ +160 over Arizona
4:10 PM EST. Perhaps the biggest overlay on the board. First, the Rockies lead the majors in many offensive categories against southpaws and will face a weak one here in Madison Bumgarner (LHP - ARI). Even on the road against southpaws, the Rockies have been terrific so it’s not just a Coors Field thing. Back to MadBum, a starter with pedigree from years gone by but at this point, he owns some of the worst skills in the game among all qualified starters.
After 17 starts, MadBum has an incredibly lucky ERA of 3.74. His swing and miss rate is a weak 8% and his WHIP is also weak at 1.43. However, over his last five starts, MadBum’s WHIP is an unsightly 1.68. His xERA is 6.08. His command sub-indicators haven't been any better with a 58% first-pitch strike rate and 35% ball, not to mention a fly-ball lean profile. You will not find many better sell-high candidates, meaning regression is about to hit hard.
Kyle Freeland is pitching much better away from Coors Field where in seven starts this season he is 1-3 with a 3.31/2.91 ERA/xERA split. Nothing more needs to be said.
Colorado -1½ +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)