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 -1½ +220    -1½ +240

Posted at 11:00 AM EST and are subject to change.

Miami -1½ +202 over St. Louis

7:45 PM EST. Braxton Garrett (LHP - St. L) has started just four games in his young career but he’s getting more comfortable with each passing start. Thus far, covering 18 innings, he’s walked just five while posting 17 K’s with a supported swing & miss rate of 16%. Garrett’s slider has surpassed the curveball as his best pitch and he can use it to get hitters to chase outside of the zone. Garrett also mixes in a slower curveball and average change-up. Because of his angle to the plate, he has a bit of deception and can induce soft contact. That’s the skinny on Miami’s starter but this wager has nothing to do with backing him.  

Dakota Hudson (RHP - STL) is the owner of the worst skills in the game among starters with an ERA under 4. It’s actually incredible that Hudson hasn’t been whacked every time he takes the hill. Luck can last a long time. We saw it with Marco Estrada of the Blue Jays for about three years before he disappeared off the face of the earth. Dakota Hudson has walked 35 batters while striking out 41 in 75 innings. Hudson’s complete lack of command is supported by his ugly 7.0% swing & miss rate, 54% first-pitch strike rate and 43% ball%. Over his last 30 innings, covering five starts, he has an awful BB/K split of 12/16. Hudson’s xERA is near six, thus, few pitchers will feel the power of regression more than Dakota Hadson but today’s he’s priced like a #2 starter playing some shit-ass team.   

Last week, we wrote about Miami’s leadoff hitter, Jon Berti, a Maury Wills talent that wreaks havoc on the bases. Today, we present another star in the making, Jazz Chisolm. Armed with lightning quick hands and a steeper, more adaptable swing, Chisholm is emerging as one of the more prominent young stars in the league. He’s not without weaknesses—he has yet to have an extra base hit against a changeup in 2022 and only had five in 2021—but being able to hit velocity and hit the nastiest breaking pitches in baseball eliminates a lot of ways for pitchers to attack him. The Marlins have a rapidly ascending young superstar on their hands. Point is, this is not some shit-ass team. This is a team on the verge of winning a lot of baseball games and we’ll be playing them a lot because they are so underpriced almost daily.