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 -1½ +225    -1½ +240

Posted at 3:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Boston -1½ +225 over Boston

2:10 PM EST. With odds of 2-1 or better, we’re going to start playing the alternative run-line daily. One out of three winners (.333) shows a profit. Two out of three will crush. One out of four (.225 is a small loss). The math suggests this is a profitable approach so we’re going to put it to the test for an extended period of time. 

Connor Seabold (RHP, BOS) gets the spot start here after posting a 5-1 mark for Triple-A Worcester to go along with his 2.09 ERA covering 11 starts and 51 innings. At Worcester he struck out 51 batters over that span. Seabold was a 3rd round pick by the Phillies in 2017 and was acquired by Boston in August 2020. Everything about him screams back-end starter with average velocity and mediocre secondary offerings. A highlight of Seabold is his above average command and control. He operates with a 90-94 mph fastball that features a high spin rate. His best secondary pitch is a low-80s changeup that also exhibits late drop and is tough to make hard contact against. Seabold also mixes in an average slider and slow curveball. His stuff plays up because of his keen sequencing ability. All in all, there is enough here to suggest he could be a solid #4 starter if he can improve one of his breaking balls. However, this wager is not about backing Seabold. It’s about getting behind the hottest team in baseball, as the Red Sox are on fire and can absolutely win here. 

The Blue Jays did not have a good weekend. They have been laboring for a couple of weeks now with just four wins over their past 12 games. Over that span, the Jays pitching staff has surrendered 6, 10, 12, 8, 7, 5 and 10 runs in seven of those games. Point being, this is a worn out bullpen and Kevin Gausman (RHP - TOR) is showing some signs of fatigue also. Gausman struck out seven in six innings while allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks. He did not factor into the decision in a 7-6 loss Tuesday against the White Sox.  Gausman’s struggles over his last five starts - a 5.18 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP over 23 frames is partly due to bad luck, as he’s recorded a .349 BABIP and 67% left on base rate in the last month. Still, the Red Sox are hitting everything right now and current Red Sox have faced Gausman plenty of times over the years so he’s not going to throw something they haven’t seen. At the end of the day, the sizzling Red Sox at this price are very worthy.