Washington @ Texas
Washington -1½ +220 over Texas

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smallbet365 -1½ +210 small888   -1½ +220

Posted at 9:35 AM EST and are subject to change.

Washington -1½ +218 over Texas

2:35 PM EST. Jackson Tetreault (RHP - WAS) was a wispy 6'5" and 170 as a 7th-round selection in 2017 who had come on late, touching 95 with two potential secondaries. Five professional seasons later he's added weight and velocity but not much in terms of secondaries, projecting as a swingman who probably should transition to the bullpen. Tetreault's four-seam fastball works 93-94 and can touch 97 which he's improved his command on. There's a high 80s slider that looks more like a cutter, alongside a curveball, and a change-up. The change-up lags a bit, though the fastball command has improved to the point where the pitch sits plus. The slider is his main secondary, and while the pitch has good bite he can hang them a bit, nor does the pitch get a lot of swings and misses. You could be forgiven if you saw Tetreault pitch and not think he has a change-up because it can disappear for large chunks of time. Because the secondaries really lack in terms of swing-and-miss, the fastball can get exposed on repeated viewings. 

Tetreault has made two starts since his call-up. Prior, the swing and miss is uninspiring at 9.2% for Triple-A Rochester this year and the BB% has gone in the wrong direction, inflating to 9.6%, while his hit (26%) and strand rates (75%) say that he likely deserves his 5.25 ERA. The delivery is clean, though, and there's enough of a fastball/slider combo that Tetreault makes much more sense in the pen where he only has to wow in one inning spurts, which he can. We don’t know how he’ll fair, aas he’s been good in one start and awful in another in two starts at this level but we’ll live with whatever he delivers because Washington can win this game. 

You see, Glenn Otto (RHP - TEX) appears to be hitting a wall in his development. This is Otto's second stint in the majors, and while his ERA is much better, his skills have actually been worse, particularly his control. And his BB% has risen to 15% over his last five starts (pushing his xERA to 6.26), suggesting the problem isn't getting better. In 2021, he posted a 30% Ball% and 73% first-pitch strike rate, both elite marks; in 2022, he's fallen to 40% and 55%, respectively, both alarmingly bad.

The walks have been worse against left-handed batters, where he owns a 15% BB% on the season, and only a 20% hit rate has saved him against lefties. But his numbers against right-handers aren't much better: 11% BB%, 17% K%, 6% K-BB%, and with a normal 30% hit rate there, his OPS allowed is .834. His strikeouts faded a bit as he made the jump from the minors to the majors, and his 2021 MLB K% was misleading, as it wasn't supported by his well-below-average swing and miss rate. His swing and miss rate is slightly better in 2022, but still below average—his career 21% K% is about where you'd expect it to be, and that's not enough to offset the kind of control problems he's having. He only has one consistently strong strikeout pitch, his slider, but he's throwing it less this year (35.3% usage in 2021, 22.8% usage in 2022).

The skills that Otto displayed in 2021—a mix of high groundballs, low walks, and a decent number of strikeouts—made him an attractive option, but that's not the pitcher we've been seeing in 2022. His control problems seem to be undermining his skill set, and now there's a good chance he could wind up back in Triple-A, where he only has 37 IP of experience. That’s added pressure on him to avoid riding buses again. Washington is not a good baseball team but they can bash and they’re facing a starter in big trouble here. Today, Otto and the baseball Rags are priced like it’s Yu Darvish pitching for the Padres. Get the f**k outta here. Big overlay.



Our Pick

Washington -1½ +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)

Baltimore -1½ +124 over L.A. Angels
San Francisco +100 over San Diego
Toronto +120 over Tampa Bay
Washington +135 over Cincinnati
San Diego under 83½ -105
Boston under 79½ -110