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 -1½ +210    -1½ +220

Posted at 9:35 AM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +211 over San Francisco

4:05 PM EST. Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) owns a reverse home/road split. He has really struggled at home, both on the surface (5.01 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and beneath it (4.88 xERA). His upside comes out on the road, where he has a 3.78 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 3.41 xERA. That’s what happens when you pitch half your games at Great American Small Park. Tyler Mahle’s gem against the Giants three starts ago coincided with a significant increase in his slider usage, a welcome change since prior to that start, he was throwing the pitch less than 20% of the time (he had a 30%+ usage mark in each of the prior two seasons). With a 16.4% swinging strike and 77% zone contact rates on the pitch, this matchup plays in his favor if the slider usage uptick sticks. Regardless, this wager is more about fading San Francisco’s starter. 

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - SF) has made just four starts this year, three in April and one since coming off the DL after a two month stint. In his return, Desclafani gave up five earned runs on six hits -- including two home runs -- in a 12-10 win over the Braves on Tuesday. He struck out three to give him 16 K’s in 16 innings with just three walks issued but the underlying metrics do not support that, as his below average 9,1% swing and miss rate will attest to. 

DeSclafani is 32 years old. This is his second year in San Francisco after spending several seasons with the Reds. Last year he built a fast 1st-half start on improved health and some fortunate hit rates with all of his metrics near career bests. Then he spent most of August on the IL (shoulder, ankle), but finished strong with uptick in walk-and-HR evasion. He peaked with a career year as a free agent-to-be…..we should all be so lucky. Health, Consistency, expected-stats (xERA, xWHIP, etc), say he won’t be fortunate again, thus regression will bite so we’ll attack before it does.