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 -1½ +150     -1½ +150

Posted at 7:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Miami -1½ +155 over Colorado

12:10 PM EST. Braxton Garrett (LHP -MIA) is 1-2 in three starts with a 4.85 ERA. He was a 1st round pick in 2016 and underwent Tommy John surgery shortly thereafter. He hasn’t lived up to the hype of the #7 overall pick, but he has appeared in the majors in each of the last two seasons. He throws from a high ¾ slot and downhill angle. The fastball generally sits in the 88-92 mph range, though can bump a bit higher on occasion. His slider has surpassed the curveball as his best pitch and he can use it to get hitters to chase outside of the zone. Garrett also mixes in a slower curveball and average change-up. While we’re not excited about Garrett, we continue to be very excited about the Marlins. 

The Marlins area much stronger team than their record suggests and they're getting even better. Jon Berti has now played in 40 games and he might be the best leadoff man in the game. Berti is running wild across the entire major leagues this month. Since the start of June, he is batting .300/.364/.357 with 14 stolen bases, 10 runs scored, and eight RBI. He leads all players in steals this month and has more swipes than all but five teams in June! Berti has suddenly vaulted to the top of the steals leaderboard, tied with Julio Rodríguez for the MLB lead with 18 apiece. But considering how often Berti steals compared to his opportunities—how many times he’s on first or second with the next base open—and games played, his prowess on the base paths is more impressive.

Just two Marlins (Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler) have double-digit homers this year, and they rank 11th in the National League in runs scored. Letting Berti press down on the gas pedal can make pitchers go awry and open the floodgates for other hitters. Thus, Berti has batted leadoff or second in each of the last five games and since June 1, the Marlins rank seventh in the majors with 5.97 runs per game. 

Kyle Freeland has below-average skills. Throwing his slider (25.8%) more often hasn’t done a damn thing, as his 48 K’s in 73 frames with a weak 7% swing and miss rate will attest to. His 41% HardHit% against is in the bottom 10 among starters. He had a 48% career groundball rate coming into this year but that is also getting worse. Freeland’s groundball rate this year is 41% and it is 35% over his last five games. In his last outing, Freeland picked up a seven-inning win against the Padres on Friday in what might be considered the luckiest win of the year. He struck out zero batters (!) while allowing eight hits and walking four. He now has 10 walks issued against 14 K’s in his last 30 innings. It’s ugly,