Chicago @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh +100 over Chicago

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Posted at 7:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +100 over Chicago

12:35 PM EST. Justin Steele as road chalk is an instant fade. Steele has already pitched more innings this year than all of last year and the fatigue is starting to set in. In his last 26 innings over five starts, Steele has an unsightly BB/K split of 12/15 to go along with an xERA of 5.22. More signs of fatigue are a progressively weakening swing and miss rate that is at 9.7% this year but just 8.2% over his last five games and 6.7% over his past two games. Last year, Steele appeared in 20 games with 11 of those coming in relief. This year, all 13 appearances have been starts. A 25% K-BB% as a reliever vs. 9% as starter provides a pretty good hint at which role this stiff is better suited for. If the Cubbies had more bodies to start, Steele would be demoted to the pen.

Jose Quintana (LHP - PIT) gave up three earned runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Giants on Saturday. He did not factor into the decision. Quintana is still just 33 years old and is pitching well and certainly has been more effective than the favored starter here. It’s not even close, actually. Quintana’s last three games against the Giants, Braves and Tigers were not great but so what, as every non-ace will go through peaks and valleys throughout the year. Prior to his last three, Quintana allowed 2 earned runs or less in seven consecutive starts. He even threw six scoreless innings against the Dodgers on May 9 during that run. He has a very respectful 3.66/4.24 ERA/xERA split and gives the Pirates a decent chance of winning against a horrible combo of Steele and the Cubs. Wrong side favored.

Our Pick

Pittsburgh +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)