Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 2:30 PM EST and are subject to change.
Washington +130 over Baltimore
7:05 PM EST. Sometimes you have to plug your nose when looking at backing some of these starting pitchers. We do our best to have no bias and therefore, we can make a case for just about anything if we trust there is value in that wager. Further to that, who in the orange hell is Baltimore to be favored in this range against any left-handed pitcher on this planet?
Patrick Corbin (LHP - WAS) is a left-handed pitcher. Do we need to say more? We’re not going to sugarcoat Corbin as some pitching savant, as he’s been in our sights as a fade target more often than not. However, 2022 has been a weird year and even Corbin can be considered a value play. If we could point to a few signs that show Corbin has been unlucky, one would be his low strand rate of 59.1%. Another is his Batting Average of Balls in Play, which is an inflated .363.
The Orioles swing and miss against lefties more than anyone in Major League Baseball. Moreover, Baltimore is just 23rd in On Base Percentage and 25th in Slugging Percentage. We’re not sure how the O’s are going to score their runs today, but one figure that will be their problem and not ours.
The Nationals on the other hand are a top-five side when it comes to plate discipline (strikeouts) versus right-handed pitching, which should serve them well when Baltimore sends Tyler Wells (RHP - BAL), who doesn’t fool anyone with his limited arsenal. In 59.2 innings pitched this season, Wells sports a wimpy 5.43 K/9 strikeout rate. Wells is coming off a win in Toronto where he pitched six innings of five-hit ball, but stuck out just three. We don’t want to rain on a guys parade, especially since he cashed a ticket as a +225 underdog and far cry from the price you’ll pay to back Wells today, but he was very lucky in those six frames in Toronto, posting a 100% strand rate and an xERA of nearly five despite his one earned run. The box score doesn’t always tell the full story.
Washington +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)