Cleveland @ Minnesota
Cleveland +145 over Minnesota

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Posted at 2:05 PM EST and are subject to change.

Cleveland +145 over Minnesota

7:40 PM EST. The Baseball Team is coming off a weekend series win over the Dodgers in which they took two of three games from Los Angeles. Cleveland is low-key playing some really good ball right now, as that was its sixth series win in a row. Winners of eight of their last 10, the Baseball Team will welcome Aaron Civale (RHP - CLE), who is coming off a 15-Day IL stint after nursing a thigh injury.

Civale saw some action last Wednesday at Triple-A Columbus, where he struck out seven over 4.2 innings pitched. Civale walked just one while giving up just two hits and an earned run. It was just one rehab start, but there’s enough meat on that bone that we are not worried about him making his first big league start in a month tonight.

We’re not going to focus too much on Civale’s early-season because he obviously wasn’t right physically, but we will note that his xERA was over 2½ runs lower than his surface number. Other signs that point to some bad luck include his Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) of .337, which is much higher than the norm (around .270). Civale only pitched 30 innings before hitting the IL, so again, we’re not going to put too much stock in it.

Minnesota’s Joe Ryan (RHP - MIN) recently returned from an IL stint after a lengthy bout with COVID. Ryan made his first MLB start in three weeks last Monday in Seattle, where he struggled through 4.2 innings, surrendering four runs on five hits while punching out three. Even before he got sick, Ryan had shown signs of struggle with a groundball rate of just 31.3%.

Ryan picked up a win back on May 15 against Cleveland, but a closer look at that box score shows that he benefited greatly from a BABIP of .188 and a 100% strand rate. One figures the Baseball Team, which is the third-best team in the bigs hitting right-handed pitching, and let Ryan off the hook the last time, has been chomping at the bit for another crack at him. Just for reference, Ryan was a -139 favorite in that last meeting and now he’s -165 tonight. We trust there is great value in the Baseball Team here and we're on it.

Our Pick

Cleveland +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)