Today's Free Picks for
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N.Y. Yankees -1½ +105 over Toronto
1:35 PM EST. Luis Severino (RHP - NYY) has looked like an ace again recently. Digging deeper, few starters have been better against RH batters than Severino: 37% K%, 7% BB%, 29% K-BB%, 45% grounders and a 2.55 xERA. Those skills have driven the 2.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP he has posted against them. He's much less effective against lefty bats but the Blue Jays have a right-handed heavy batting lineup. Toronto will send just two left-handed bats to the plate today (Biggio & Raimel Tapia). Meanwhile Severino has 71 K’s against just 15 walks issued in 61 innings.
We’re not giving up on Yusei Kikuchi (LHP - TOR) but this is not the right spot to catch him after three straight duds in a row with the latter two coming against K.C. and Baltimore (8 BB, 7 ER, 6 K in 4.2 innings). Kikuchi has to be feeling shell-shocked. Most concerning is that he can’t find the strike zone, as he’s walked 12 batters over his last 19 innings and walked four last time out in four innings. Kikuchi is either fearful of throwing strikes because he’s been hit so hard or there is something physically wrong. Either scenario is not good. We should also point out that these frequent disasters started to occur in the second half of last season when a sudden rise of hard contact (xHR/F), coincided with the foreign substance crackdown (Correlation? Causation?). The Yanks feast off walks and hard contact while the Blue Jays have looked feeble over the past two games in this three-game set.
N.Y. Yankees +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)