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 -1½ +105    -1½ +105

Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Tampa Bay -1½ +105 over Baltimore

6:05 PM EST. Dean Kremer has started two games this year covering nine innings. Over that stretch, he has walked three and struck out five. In his small sample size this year, Kremer has posted a 3.86 ERA but his xERA of 6.20 tells the real story of how hittable he is. Pay no attention to his ERA. Last year, Kremer went 0-7 with a 6.99/6.21 ERA/xERA split in 54 IP for Baltimore. An extreme fly-ball rate coupled with high HR/F ruined any chance of success. He displayed solid control in upper levels of minors, but that has yet to translate to time in MLB (11.3 BB% in 81 innings), and his 2020 K% proved to be a mirage in a larger sample, with swing and miss rate (7%) indicating little chance of improvement. Pitching for the O’s, Kremer should be a bigger underdog here but he’s not because Tampa’s rookie starter had a rough debut.Shane Baz (RHP - TAM) gave up five runs on three hits and three walks in 2.1 innings while striking out just two batters Saturday against the Twins, picking up the loss in his season debut. One never knows how one will perform in their MLB debut or season debut. It means nothing.

Shane Baz is an electric-armed 22-year-old who was activated off of the 60-day DL and made his season debut with that aforementioned start. What we know for sure is that Baz is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and that would be agreed upon by statistical analysis and old school scouting. He was a first round pick of the Pirates in 2017 before being traded to the Pirates in the ill-fated trade in August 2018. He earned three starts with the Rays in 2021 and even started a playoff game. Baz underwent minor surgery in March 2022 to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow. Back at full strength, he dominated Triple-A and will now look to establish himself in the Rays rotation for the rest of the year. Put simply, he has no obvious shortcoming in his delivery or overall repertoire. He works with three primary pitches in his 94-99 mph fastball, mid-80s slider and high-80s change-up. Baz can miss bats with all three while also inducing weak contact. His athleticism and arm speed are ideal for an ace and he has ironed out his delivery to the point of now having above average command and control. Baz could front the rotation for the rest of this year and beyond. Tonight, Baz will look to get back on track versus the Orioles, and more often than not, the Orioles will accommodate that bounceback.