Today's Free Picks for
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N.Y. Mets +115 over Milwaukee
6:10 PM EST. The Mets are heating up again with two straight wins and therefore have some solid curb appeal here as the underdog. David Peterson (LHP - NYM) lives in the shadow of the Mets’ two headed monster of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, and rest of the Mets starters, but that’s not a bad life. Peterson is not going to knock your socks off with his velocity, but he will leave you twisted up in fits with the plethora of pitches he has at his disposal to paint the strike zone.
Peterson has made six starts here in 2022 with his action spread across 36 innings. It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s enough to show some signs of what he’s got here in his third pro season. The elite groundball rate he posted in 66.2 innings last season is front and center here in 2022 at 52.5%. Last time out, Peterson worked in tandem with the returning Tylor Megill to lead the Mets to a win over the Angels. In his last start, June 4 against the Dodgers, Peterson struck out six batters in 3.2 innings.
Nobody in this space is going to rag on Corbin Burnes (RHP - MIL), as he’s great. GREAT! However, baseball is a team game, even if the starting pitchers get most of the day-to-day attention. To that point, Burnes is just 3-4 across his 12 starts this season. In his last outing, Burnes allowed three runs on three hits and walked four in just 4.1 innings against the Phillies. He did not factor into the decision, but the Crew would lose that game 8-3.
Milwaukee cannot get out of its own way right now after going on a 1-9 run over its last 10 games. That includes getting shut out 4-0 last night in Queens. That was the second time in less than a week that the Crew failed to score a single run. Prior to the series opener with the Mets last night, the Brewers could only muster one run on a getaway day in Washington last Sunday. Playing good ball is not like flipping a light switch. When one is going bad, it can be hard to turn it around. That is what this wager comes down to. We trust the Mets more than we do the Brewers and therefore, New York presents us with some great value here as a home pooch.
N.Y. Mets +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)