Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Cincinnati +170 over St. Louis

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Posted at 10:15 AM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati +170 over St. Louis

2:15 PM EST. The Reds broke our hearts with another blown save yesterday. Up 4-1 in the eighth and 4-3 with none on and two out in the ninth, the Cardinals would score twice in eighth and twice more in the ninth. The books got away with posting a sick number on Adam Wainwright to beat Hunter Greene and today’s price is just as sick. 

Dakota Hudson (RHP - STL) should not be favored in this range against anyone. Hudson is the owner of the worst skills in the game among starters with a sub-4.00 ERA. His 2.76 ERA is absolutely incredible considering how weak his skills are. Hudson has a BB/K split of 25/34 in 59 innings of work. His lack of command is supported by his ugly 7.0% swing & miss rate, 58% first-pitch strike rate, and 43% ball%. Starters with a 43% ball% rarely make it to this level, let alone thrive on the surface. Underneath the surface, Hudson is a pitcher with an xERA near 5, thus. the regression will inevitably come at some point and it will be significant.

Graham Ashcraft’s (RHP - CIN) 14% K rate will keep some away, but we’re drawn in by the 98 mph sinker, 61% groundball rate, and 6% BB rate. He has also shown double-digit swing and miss rates in his last two starts (12%, 13%), suggesting more Ks could be coming as he settles in as a big leaguer. We also like that we catch St. Louis after a big celebration yesterday in a game they were dead in the water. Those big walk-off wins tend to have a negative (letdown) effect the next day. Regardless, the price here is stupid. 

Our Pick

Cincinnati +170 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.40)