Cincinnati @ St. Louis
Cincinnati +155 over St. Louis

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Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati +155 over St. Louis

2:15 PM EST. Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) brings a very solid 11.8 K/9 strikeout rate to the bump today. In addition, Greene sports an xERA (3.87) that is almost a run and half lower than his 5.40 surface number. Greene will show you a fastball that clocks at anywhere between 97-103 mph and his slider has gotten much better as well. Those strong pitches have led to a nasty swing and miss rate of 13.5%. We backed Greene in his last start against the Diamondbacks on Monday where he allowed just one hit over seven shutout innings while striking out eight. Greene was favored in that matchup, but this afternoon, he is the underdog. We trust the value in that proposition is tremendous which has us coming right back on Greene once again.

Adam Wainwright (RHP - STL) is a pitcher we’ve been fading for a couple of seasons now and we see no reason to stop. Here in 2022, Wainwright has seen his skills erode further with an uptick in his walk rate, and a downtick in his strikeout rate. Bad combination. Don’t be fooled by Wainwright’s tidy 2.73 ERA, as it’s smoke and mirrors. His xERA is 4.12 and he’s not fooling anyone with a puny 6.3% swing and miss rate. That is the lowest posted number of any of today’s qualified starters. Our attack on Wainwright continues this afternoon, as he is being given far too much respect from the oddsmakers. There is a great opportunity when Wainwright is spotting such inflated prices. This dude is due for a correction to the bad and we’re not going to miss out.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)