Today's Free Picks for
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NY Mets -1½ +140 over L.A. Angels
9:38 PM EST. Jhonathan Diaz (LHP - LAA) comes in with a 1.32 ERA after 14 innings. He has appeared in three games overall with two of those being starts. Diaz appeared in three games covering 13 innings with Los Angeles in 2021. He was originally signed by the Red Sox out of Venezuela in 2013 and was with Boston thru the 2020 campaign. He then signed a deal with the Angels in 2021. Diaz has mostly been a starter in his pro career and has been quite durable since missing the entire 2015 season. He has a strong, compact frame and average velocity from the left side. With a fastball averaging 90 mph, he relies on three key attributes—command, control and deception. Due to his keen ability to hide the ball in his delivery, he fools hitters with his sneaky fastball. He also has a big-bending curveball and a sub-par change-up.
Thing is, Diaz has walked eight batters while striking out 10 in his 14 frames. His 93% strand rate is unsustainable and is the main reason for his minuscule ERA. His xERA is 4.91 so it’s time to attack.
Although the Angels snapped their ugly losing streak yesterday, they’re still the Angels. People like to point out how little a manager can impact a team’s on-field performance and scoff at the notion that whatever happens next after a manager is fired had anything to do with them not being around anymore. And the Angels proved that more or less true, showing multiple times on Tuesday that they are still the Angels, only now Joe Maddon doesn’t have to answer for them in increasingly cranky tones after their nightly L. Because teams like the Angels and Phillies aren’t just bad; they are stuck, and it takes more than one old man cleaning out his office to change the sad little cycles in which they’ve been trapped for years. Players don’t just magically start hitting the ball just because now the bench coach is holding the clipboard.
Tylor Megill (RHP - NYM) returns from a stint on the DL and we’ll attempt to turn one nuclear start into a buying opportunity. At this point in the season, one bad outing can still have lingering effects on a pitcher's ratios, but how different would those stats look if we gave them a pass? Starters are sometimes referred to as "shares", "stocks", or any other similar non-human term—it's easy to forget that they're people. And sometimes people just have a bad day.
Tylor Megill was on top of the world back on May 10, sitting pretty with a 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through six starts and seemed destined for a breakout season. And then May 11 happened. Out of nowhere, Megill gave up 8 ER in 1.1 IP to the lowly Nationals and was placed on the IL (biceps) the following day. Megill is on the mend, most recently striking out five in a Double-A rehab appearance, so if the time off does the trick, he could snap right back to being one of the NL's top starters. He comes into this start with a 4.41 ERA. Take out that one start and he’d have an ERA of 2.43, thus presenting us with this outstanding buy-low opportunity.
NY Mets -1½ +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)