Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:45 PM EST and are subject to change.
Texas +108 over Cleveland (1st game of double-header)
3:10 PM EST. Cal Quantrill (RHP - CLE) is another name you may recognize if you frequent this space, but if you’re new here, we’ll get you up to date on this stiff. On the surface, Quantrill might look like an appealing play and what looks to be a small price at home. However, when one digs around a little, one can find many holes in Quantrill's game. First, he’s not fooling anyone with his 15.1% strike rate, which is the lowest on the board today. Also the lowest of today’s starters is Quantrill’s strikeout rate of 5.53 K/9, as is his strike to ball rate, which is a puny 6.4%. From some perspective, Christain Javier is tops at 22.4%, Robbie Ray is second at 18.3%, Hunter Greene is third at 18.2% and Jon Gray is fourth at 17.2%. You’ll find Green and Gray on our board today, as Javier and Ray are facing one another. When we faded Quantrill last Tuesday, it was with the Royals. Tonight, he is not facing the Royals.
Before we get to the Rangers’ starter, we’ll just give you a quick glimpse as to how much more potent Texas’ lineup is compared to Kansas City. The Rangers have played one more game, but have 26 more home runs, 27 RBI's and they lead the American League in stolen bases.
Jon Gray (RHP - TEX) is a pitcher we’ve featured in this space this season, as he’s just plain been unlucky. His xERA is lower than his surface number. One would have figured that Gray would have seen a dip in both of those numbers after moving to Texas from Colorado, but that both are in line with where he was last season just to show how good he was pitching at Coors in 2021. While it’s an apples to oranges comparison, moving from the NL to AL also brings some challenges, as the DH is in play. This season, Gray has faced some hard hitting lineups including the Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, Astros and Rays. Last time out, Gray was stellar after allowing one run on three hits with just one walk over seven innings. Oh, by the way, Gray struck out 12 Tampa hitters. Did Gray get the win for that amazing effort? Of course not, the Rangers lost in extra innings. Now Gray is taking a step down in competition when facing the league's third worst team in the majors in OPS against righties.
Texas +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)