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 -1 ½+150   -1½ +155

Posted at 3:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +155 over Arizona

6:40 PM EST. Madison Bumgarner (LHP - ARI) is a shell of his former self, but you would not know that by the way he is priced on most nights. Today would be one of those nights. Bumgarner (has posted a 3.31 ERA and 1.20 WHIP after 54 IP, but sell-high targets don't get much better. His skills have been some of the worst among sub-4.00 ERA starters: 16% K%, 8% BB%, 8% K-BB%, 39% grounders and an xERA of 5.02. His command sub-indicators haven't been any better: 7.6% swing & miss rate, 58% first-pitch strikes, 35% ball%. A low 23% hit rate and 83% strand rate have been his saving grace but it's about to blow up. Bumgarner’s free swinging teammates (the only team that punches out more than the Snakes is Atlanta) are facing today’s most prolific strikeout artist.

Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) sports a 12.0 K/9 strikeout rate and unlike Bumgarner, his xERA is lower than his surface number of 6.19, which looks tempting to attack as the worst mark on the board tonight. Also unlike “MadBum,” whose swinging strike rate is a weak 7.7%, Greene is filthy, as he posts an elite 13.4% mark. We could go on and on comparing these two starters, but we think you get the point.

With a total of 9½ in a hitter’s ballpark, do not be afraid to lay the -1½ runs with the Reds, who are still greatly underperforming their preseason expectations and therefore are often underpriced. One team figures to score here, we’re betting on the one that is facing a gloried Pitch-O-Matic.