Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.
Baltimore +100 over Cleveland
1:35 PM EST. The sportsbooks don’t know who is pitching for Baltimore today, but one figures after knocking four home runs out of the park yesterday and picking up the win, the Orioles hitters aren’t too worried about it. Neither are the books. They O’s will be chomping at the bit to get back to the park. O’s manager Brandon Hyde suggested that it would likely be a bullpen game and so that is what we are expecting. As we said, it matters not, as this is all about fading the Baseball Team’s embattled starter.
We faded Zach Plesac (RHP - CLE) last time out and see no reason not to come right back against him here. In that start against the Royals, Plesac allowed one run on five hits and struck out five over six innings, however, he did not factor into the decision. Despite that modest success against the team with the lowest win total in baseball, Plesac’s skills have been on a downward trend for two seasons. This includes the goods under the hood that measure his walks and strikeouts (BB%, K%, K-BB% and swing and miss rate). Moreover, Plesac’s xERA is a near full point higher at 5.91 than his already ugly surface number of 4.93. His whip of 1.27 does not lend itself to success, nor does his 38.2% ground ball rate. Perhaps most concerning is his drop in both his called and swinging strike rate and his swinging strike rate, which was elite 14.3% in 2020, a solid 11.2% in 2021 and now is just a wimpy 8.7% here in 2022. Dude isn’t fooling anyone anymore.
Baltimore +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)