Chicago @ Tampa Bay
Chicago -110 over Tampa Bay

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Posted at 1:00 PM EST and are subject to change.

Chicago -110 over Tampa Bay

1:40 PM EST. Ryan Yarborough (RHP - TAM) has never gotten a lot of strikeouts. That’s holding true again this year (not good) but he still comes in with a respectable 4.00 ERA after six appearances with five of those boeing starts. What we’re seeing now is another year of velocity decline (86.4 MPH this year) with a swing and miss collapse and fly-ball % spike. It all adds up to a plethora of red flags. Yarborough comes in with a hugely misleading 2.53 ERA over his last five starts. His xERA over that span is 4.53 and his overall xERA is 5.11. Most of his luck stems from a low 8.3% HR/F, which is even luckier when you consider his groundball/fly-ball split is 32%/43%.

Luis Giolito (RHP - CHW) allowed six earned runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out eight across 4.2 innings to take the loss Tuesday against the Blue Jays. Big deal. He still struck out eight in 4.2 innings and he’s still an elite starter. Luis Gilito and his plus matchup rating sets the table for a rebound in Tampa Bay. As a team when hitting at home, Rays batters have not been good in 2022: Bottom-10 in MLB for strikeout and walk rates, as well as BABIP. They’re just outside the Bottom-10 in OBA and OPS when playing at Tropicana Field, too (11th-worst in MLB for both marks). Giolito has 27 K’s over his past 23 innings with an elite 16% swing and miss rate and a top-5 xERA of 2.31. South Side a true bargain today.

Our Pick

Chicago -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)

Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto