Today's Free Picks for
bet365 operates pursuant to an agreement with iGaming Ontario.
Posted at 12:00 PM EST and are subject to change.
Colorado -1½ +240 over Atlanta
3:10 PM EST. Charlie Morton (RHP - ATL) has done well to rein in hard contact this season, but he’s been hampered by sour performances on both sides of the command equation. There are other red flags too. Morton’s swing & miss rate last game was 6%. His batted ball profile of 34%/26%/40% grounders/line-drive/fly-balls is also troublesome. He does have 46 K’s in 49 innings but that is not supported by his swing and miss rate. Morton comes into this start with an ERA/xERA split of 5.47/4.87 with a WHIP of 1.50. Those are all warning us to stay away. He’s also facing a Rockies team that leads MLB in OBA and OBP at home, while owning the second-best SLG and fifth-best home strikeout rates. Rockies hitters also only have a collective 23% strikeout rate against four-seam fastballs and curves, two pitches that account for nearly 95% of Morton’s usage.
Ryan Feltner (RHP - COL) is quickly becoming one of our favorite under-the-radar starters. He parlayed a dominant turn in the Cape Cod League into a fourth-round selection by the Rockies in 2018. Feltner's four-seam fastball found a few more ticks last season and now is consistently an above-average pitch that increasingly flashes plus. He backs that up with a very decent slider and change-up, with a fringe-average curve that the Rockies have been pushing so that he can more effectively work north-south with his four-seamer at the top of the zone.
His swinging strike rate is nearing elite levels and is getting progressively better. He has 20 K’s in 17 frames with just five walks issued. His groundball rate is 57% and his line-drive rate is 13%. All of this is a small sample but he’s been consistently elite in all three starts with an xERA of 2.25. Get on board with Ryan Feltner before it’s too late because he has ace-like stuff with his under-the-hood stats backing them all up.
Colorado -1 +240 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.80)