Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:00 PM EST and are subject to change.
Giants -1½ +110 over Miami
6:40 PM EST. Elieser Hernandez (RHP - MIA) has struggled this season. On Sunday, he allowed four runs on seven hits over four innings against the Braves. Hernandez struck out just three hitters and he took the loss which was his fifth of the season. We are not buying what Hernandez is selling here in 2022. With his 31.6% groundball rate, a dip in strikeouts and a bloated xERA of 4.54, Hernandez is impossible to trust right now. He’s all messed up and he appears to have lost his confidence. It’s time to attack.
Alex Cobb (RHP - SF) is a player that has been a target of ours over the years, but he has found new life in San Francisco. It’s not entirely a Kevin Gausman-level step up in skills and success, but for Cobb, there is no doubt that the move to McCovey Cove has served him well. Cobb is a great buy low candidate and we're all over it. While Cobb did not factor into the decision in his last start, he had a solid outing allowing two runs on four hits while striking out eight over six innings.
Cobb has deserved a much better fate this season, as he sports the top groundball rate in MLB at 65.4%. That’s the best mark on the board today by nearly 10%. After facing 164 batters this season, Cobb has stuck out 28.7% of those hitters while walking just 7.3%. That's a 4-1 strikeout to walk rate. That, too, is elite. His .402 BABIP and 52.1% strand rate also show Cobb’s been incredibly unlucky. To put the cherry on top of our case for Cobb is an xERA that is a gorgeous 2.04. His ERA is an inflated 5.73. Buy low and buy now on Cobb.
San Francisco -1½ +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)