Cincinnati @ Boston
Cincinnati +130 over Boston

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Cincinnati +130 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. Through four starts, Luis Castillo (RHP - CIN) has a 3.52 xERA with five walks issued and 18 K’s over 21 frames. Throw in an elite 53% groundball rate and a swinging strike rate that has gotten progressively better with each start and he’s precisely the type of under the radar starter we can get behind.

Cincinnati sends out its tough lineup today (this really is a very good offense) at Fenway to face Michael Wacha (RHP - BOS). Here is another starter with highly misleading numbers. Wacha may be 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through seven starts, however, that success is mostly smoke and mirrors. He can't be counted on to continue that success with his skills to this point (4.68 xERA, 14 BB’s, 24 K’s in 35 IP). No pitcher in the entire league has received more hit and strand rate help than Wacha (18% hit-rate, 89% strand rate). This is why we do what we do, to find games exactly like this one, where market perception is wrong based on misleading surface numbers all over the place on both sides.

Our Pick

Cincinnati +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)