San Diego @ St. Louis
San Diego +110 over St. Louis

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST and are subject to change. 

San Diego +110 over St. Louis

7:45 PM EST. Blake Snell (LHP - SD) is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.00 after two starts after returning from the DL. On paper it doesn’t look pretty but underneath is a starter with outstanding profit potential, which isn’t going to last long. In his two starts covering nine innings, Snell has struck out 12 batters with a supported swing & miss rate of 15% to go along with a minuscule 10% line-drive rate. Let’s not forget that Snell surged late last year with a 1.83 ERA and 39% K% in his last eight starts before a September groin injury. A healthy Snell is a great starter.

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright (RHP - ST. L) is a horrible option. Last year, Wainwright logged the most innings of any 39+ year-old since 2007 and did it with a second straight sub-3.20 ERA. Another fortunate hit rate made his ratios look much better than their xERA/xWHIP counterparts, as his swing and miss rate was the lowest of any qualified starter. Adam Wainwright’s sleight of hand show is on the verge of crumbling.

In 52 innings this season, Wainwright has a BB/K split of 19/38 but those 38 K’s are not supported by his lame 6% swing and miss rate. He has compiled a hugely misleading 3.12 ERA but his 5.67 xERA is knocking on the door. Somehow Adam Wainwright keeps pitching with the aid of generous rates around the margins. An extremely lucky 24% hit rate and 81% strand have been the real reasons for his quick start on the surface. Under the surface, Adam Wainwright is one of the worst starters in the game. His ERA is in line for a massive correction so attack and be relentless until the price on him reflects how bad he is.

Our Pick

San Diego +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)