Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 9:15 AM EST and are subject to change.
San Francisco -1½ +115 over Cincinnati
11:35 AM EST. This game starts at 11:35 AM EST, as part of MLB’s attempt to promote the sport with a series of games labeled “MLB Sunday Leadoff on Peacock”. This promotion will run until Sept 4 with games starting at either 11:30 AM or 12:00 PM and will not continue afterward because we all know what takes place on Sunday, Sept 11. Baseball cannot compete against that. These idiots actually think people are going to pass on going out on a beautiful Sunday morning in the sweet summertime to stay at home and watch a baseball game on television.
Tyler Mahle (RHP - CIN) and his straight fastball are set to go for the Reds. Mahle will always get his share of K’s but all of his other skills are weak. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher in a hitter’s park with hot weather moving in. Forecast today is for 29°C or 84.2°F (depending on where you buy your guns), so balls figure to be carrying much more in the heat. Mahle has a horrible WHIP of 1.49. His ERA/xERA split of 6.32/5.22 tells the story of a pitcher that is constantly in trouble and constantly trying to pitch out of jams.
Yesterday, the Giants outhit the Reds 12-5 and lost 3-2. That loss was on the extreme side of bad luck, which brings us to Alex Cobb (RHP - SF), who has been MLB’s most unluckiest starter this year. On the surface it looks like Cobb is having a rough season (6.25 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), but there is a lot of hidden value in his outstanding skills set.
Cobb has an xERA of 2.72. His groundball rate of 69% is off the charts. He’s striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings with few walks being issued. His line-drive rate of 13% is the best in the biz. An absurd 42% hit rate and 62% strand have been the real reasons for his bad stats. Under teh surface, these are ace-like numbers and it means that Cobb on the verge of a big time run that will see his ERA drop dramatically to where it deserves to be.
San Francisco -1½ +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)