Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore +167 over Boston

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Posted at 9:15 AM EST and are subject to change. 

Baltimore +167 over Boston

1:35 PM EST. Bruce Zimmerman's (LHP - BAL) skills have been really strong: 24% K%, 6% BB%, 18% K-BB%, 42% grounders and a 4.08 xERA. In his last game, Zimmermann's groundball rate was 61%. Even more impressive have been his command sub-indicators: 12.0% swing and miss rate, 63% first-pitch strikes, 34% ball%. This kid is getting progressively better with each passing start and now he and the feisty O’s are taking back too big a price because Nick Pivetta (RHP - BOS) is on fire. 

Nick Pivetta started the season off by throwing a disaster in his first three starts. Since then, he has completely turned it around, as each of his last three have resulted in a gem and over his last five he has put up a 30/3 K/BB over 32 innings. Right-handed batters have been held to a .192 BA and .567 OPS against him this season. Today, one will pay a hefty price to get behind Pivetta and it’s the perfect time to sell because he’s not this good. He’s definitely serviceable but again, this good, he is not. 

The underlying metrics point to Pivetta pitching almost identically to his career numbers. Pivetta has limited the hit rate in 2022 to 27%, over five percentage points better than his career average. Typically, Pivetta allowed a high rate of home runs, evidenced by a career 1.5 HR/9 and a 16% HR/F. However, in 2022, Pivetta boasts a 1.1 HR/9 and 11% HR/F. These numbers may regress closer to Pivetta's career norms, but they aren't extreme outliers. He has typically finished with a higher actual ERA than his xERA throughout his career, evidenced by Pivetta's ERA of 5.09 versus an xERA of 4.02. Pivetta profiles as a stuff over control and command pitcher with a career swing and miss rate of 11.3% but during this hot streak, his swing and miss rate is lower than that at 10.4% and only 4.6% in his last start. Fatigue perhaps after throwing 32 innings over his last five starts?  

Most of his underlying metrics don't scream outlier levels due to regress, meaning it's a sustainable profile for Pivetta but that’s the entire picture and not the last five games. In other words, his xERA this year of 4.18 is almost identical to his 4.25 actual ERA. Pivetta’s 2.23 ERA over his last five starts is the part that’s a mirage and while there is no question he and the Red Sox have a great chance to win today, so, too, do the Orioles. The difference is that Baltimore is taking back a big price.

Our Pick

Baltimore +167 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.34)